An article from Dive Brief Lumina sets new postsecondary attainment goal with focus on college ROI

The influential nonprofit wants 75% of U.S. adults to have a postsecondary degree or credential that leads to “economic prosperity” by 2040.

Published March 4, 2025 Laura Spitalniak Editor

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Tashi-Delek via Getty Images Listen to the article 4 min This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback.  Dive Brief:

• The Lumina Foundation on Tuesday set a new goal for higher education — for 75% of working adults to have a postsecondary degree or credential that boosts their “economic prosperity” by 2040.
• Currently, 44.1% of adults fit this description, according to the foundation. It defined economic prosperity as someone with a postsecondary credential earning at least 15% more than the national average for adults who only graduated high school.
• Lumina's previous objective, set in 2008, sought to have 60% of working-age adults earn a degree or credential by this year. Its new goal goes a step further, prioritizing credentials that offer graduates a significant return on investment.

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The influential nonprofit, which historically focused on general postsecondary attainment, didn't hit its initial goal of 60% of working-age adults having a credential by 2025 — but it came close. Today, 55% of adults have completed some form of education beyond high school, up from 38% when the foundation set the goal 17 years ago.

"The substantial increase in attainment since 2008 has been one of the most significant but least recognized success stories of the past decade and a half," Jamie Merisotis, CEO of Lumina, said on a press call Monday. 

In those years, higher education has run into a bevy of headwinds, he said.

"We're facing a fresh set of challenges — rising costs, doubts about job opportunities and things like the influence of artificial intelligence have caused people to question whether a college degree is really worth it," Merisotis said. 

Lumina's increased focus on college's ROI will help ensure that graduates get a quality education that benefits them holistically, said Courtney Brown, Lumina’s vice president of impact and planning.

"While we increase attainment, we also have to ensure that the credentials are valuable to individuals and that they're leading to really meaningful financial benefits and long-term economic prosperity," she said on the call. 

With its refined focus, Lumina's methodology has shifted as well. The foundation previously included all adults age 25 to 64 in its metrics. Now, it will focus on adults in that demographic who are also in the workforce, meaning they are working, looking for work or are in the military.

In future years, Lumina is interested in tracking a more "holistic view of economic prosperity" versus one focused solely on earnings, Brown said. 

"We understand that economic prosperity is more than wages," she said. But the foundation primarily relies on U.S. Census data, and available data sources make it difficult to track employment metrics like job satisfaction and community impact.

"To ensure that credentials and degrees really deliver on economic prosperity, we needed to set a clear standard for this goal. We wanted to make sure that we had something that wasn't squishy," Brown said.

The foundation said it will pursue ways of quantifying broader measures such as well-being in its future research reports. 

Lumina also released a strategic plan for achieving its new attainment goal, focusing on four objectives: ensuring people earn valuable credentials, expanding access to postsecondary education, helping more students graduate, and redesigning education for the future. The last element focuses on affordability, public financing and instigating "a dramatic overhaul that recasts how we pay for and structure" colleges and their support systems.

"We can't make the 2040 goal happen on our own, just as we couldn't make the 2025 goal happen without the major role played by states, by different education and training providers, including colleges and universities, and by the hard work of a lot of people," Merisotis said. 

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