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What Would the End of Race-Conscious Admissions Mean for Minority Enrollment? Several states already ban affirmative action. Here’s what’s happened. By  Jacquelyn Elias and  Nick Perez September 2, 2022

This fall the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in two cases that challenge race-conscious admissions. The court’s decision, which isn’t expected until 2023, could result in a national ban of the practice.

To glimpse the potential impact of such a ruling, The Chronicle looked at how underrepresented-minority enrollment has shifted in the 10 states that have outlawed affirmative action. The Chronicle’s analysis considers enrollment

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Where Affirmative Action Has Been Banned Ten states have prohibited the use of race-conscious admissions and related forms of affirmative action since the 1990s. Hover your cursor over each of those states for key population and enrollment statistics.

This fall the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in two cases that challenge race-conscious admissions. The court’s decision, which isn’t expected until 2023, could result in a national ban of the practice.

To glimpse the potential impact of such a ruling, The Chronicle looked at how underrepresented-minority enrollment has shifted in the 10 states that have outlawed affirmative action. The Chronicle’s analysis considers enrollment at 30 selective public institutions in states with bans on race-conscious admissions.

Those bans apply only to public institutions. The two cases before the court this fall could result in bans at private colleges as well.

How Enrollment Changed in States With Affirmative-Action Bans Three states saw the gap between their underrepresented-minority population and their in-state underrepresented-minority enrollment at selective institutions grow. Enrollment by race Underrepresented minorities

• Underrepresented minorities
• American Indian or Alaska Native
• Asian or Pacific Islander
• Black
• Hispanic
• White

Enrollment by student type All students

• All students
• First-year students
• Full-time students

State's college-age population

Enrollment at selective, four-year institutions in each state

See all Note: The "Ban began" labels indicate the years that the policies were put in place, but they may not have affected the admissions cycle of that year. Enrollment Change at a Glance The vast majority of flagship campuses with state bans on race-conscious admissions did not see their underrepresented-minority enrollment increase at the same rate as their state’s underrepresented-minority population of college age. Flagship university Year of state's ban Underrepresented-minority enrollment change from ban to 2020 Underrepresented-minority population change from ban to 2020 University of Arizona 2010 4.1% 5.0% University of California at Berkeley 1996 6.2% 7.9% University of Florida 1999 7.2% 9.6% University of Idaho 2020 N/A N/A University of Michigan at Ann Arbor 2006 -2.2% 3.1% University of Nebraska at Lincoln 2008 6.3% 5.6% University of New Hampshire 2012 0.1% 1.7% University of Oklahoma at Norman 2012 0.3% 3.9% University of Texas at Austin 1996 - 2003 1.7% 2.8% University of Washington 1998 6.3% 10.3% Note: Enrollment represents first-year, first-time degree-seeking undergraduates. Idaho data are omitted because the ban was instituted too recently for statistical change to be recorded.

Methodology

The state population estimates of 18-to-24-year-olds by race are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Bridged-Race Population Estimates.

After Affirmative Action A special report on the imperiled future of race-conscious admissions.

• How Affirmative Action Was Derailed by Diversity
• Affirmative Action’s Big Win Always Had an Asterisk
• Enrolling Diverse Students When Race Is Off the Table

The enrollment figures are from the U.S. Education Department’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. They represent fall-enrollment counts. From 1994 to 2007 the enrollment figures for “Asian or Pacific Islander” do not include Hawaiian Natives. After 2007 that group is represented in this category. “Underrepresented minorities” are defined as American Indian and Alaska Native, Black, and Hispanic students.

The percentage of underrepresented minorities in each year was calculated by dividing the total number of students in those three groups into the total number of students, minus those whose race or ethnicity was unknown, who were nonresident aliens, or who were of two or more races.

Institutions were defined as selective based on the 2018 Carnegie Undergraduate Profile classifications. Institutions that were classified as “more selective” as well as each state’s flagship institution were included in this analysis.

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We welcome your thoughts and questions about this article. Please email the editors or submit a letter for publication. DataAdmissions & EnrollmentRace Jacquelyn Elias Jacquelyn Elias is a news applications developer for The Chronicle of Higher Education. She builds data visualizations and news applications. Follow her on Twitter @jacquelynrelias, or email her at [email protected]. Nick Perez Nick Perez is The Chronicle’s news data specialist.